Iceland Geologic Hazard Mitigation Plan

Objective

The purpose of the Iceland Geologic Hazard Mitigation plan is to provide information on the mechanics of the earths crust in relation to human activities. It identifies hazard and possible mitigation plans to avoid catastrophes from natural hazards, in the time of needed action. The plan will provide safety goals, hazard-monitoring systems, infrastructure regulations, and evaluate safe land use practices.

Background Information

            Iceland is 103,000 sq km, and is covered by 2, 750 sq km of water. The island is mostly a plateau interspersed with mountain peaks with the highest point 2,110 m. The land has many icefields, volcanoes, glaciated valleys, and the coast is deeply indented by bays and fjords. The geology of the land is basalt. The infrastructure has been manly volcanic stone, glass, concrete and stone. The area of the island is increasing due to the high volcanic activity and the spreading of the island due to the rift system it lies on. The main geologic hazards are flooding, earthquakes and volcanoes. The population of Iceland is 200,388 with 66.5% between the ages of 15-64. Icelanders are coast dwellers due to the fishing economy and the tectonic activity inland. Iceland’s economy is one the top economy’s in the world with a very low unemployment rate and a notable distribution if income (P. Harding, 2004).

            Iceland is very tectonically active there are around 35 volcanoes that have erupted in the last 10,000 years, and earthquakes are part of everyday life. The extensive icefields leads to a new hazard from volcanic activity. If a volcano erupts under an ice field large amounts of water will be melted leading to flooding of the landscape. The east central part of Iceland is located above a mantle plume, which is causing the earths crust to rise, fracture and spread. The plate that Iceland is situated on is moving westward therefore the spreading zone is seemingly moving eastward. The spreading rate of Iceland is 19mm/yr, which was determined by using the Nuvel-1A model with the GPS data. Spreading ridges also have transform faults that move perpendicular to the spreading ridge, and cause strike slip faults. Strike slip faults move the land horizontally. In figure two, the pink area shows the active tectonic zone that has a very small population. Although Reykjavik which has the largest population and is located in a very active zone. There are many dams in Iceland figure one represents the rivers and dams, which accompany them. The country runs mainly on hydrothermal and geothermal power (J.Solnes, 2004).

Area of most concern

I will be manly focusing on the South Iceland Lowlands due to its higher population accompanied with its high natural hazards. The number of inhabitants in this area is 14,730 and there are 5,179 residential houses. The south lowlands of Iceland contain the most important farmlands. It contains eleven active volcanoes and many fissures (R.Sigbjornsson, 1998). The ice fields located north of this area along with the rivers accompanying them purpose a hazard of flooding. Tectonic activity is the dominant feature along the landscape.

Figure one: Rivers and Dams

Figure two:  Volcanism and Rifting                  Hamblin and Christiansen (2001)

Potential Induced Effects

The South Iceland Lowlands are part of the South Iceland seismic zone (SISZ). The SISZ is 70 km east west direction with almost perfect alignment of earthquakes in a 5-10km broad band. This zone has one of the highest occurrences of earthquakes. North of the south Iceland Lowlands are many glaciers, rivers, lakes, and glaciated u-shaped valleys. The bedrock in Iceland is very thick basalt. Due to the thickness of the bedrock and the lack of loose sediments earthquakes are not as destructive. The thickness of the bedrock restricts the area of the fault to be small therefore the highest seismic magnitude is around 7. Due to the vast extent of the faulting area and the mass amounts of water and glaciers there are number of secondary hazards related to the tectonic activity. Faulting in this area is generally strike slip and normal, which displaces land vertically, horizontally and laterally. This mechanism could cause ice dams, and regular dams to break releasing huge amounts of water down the valleys into villages. Another hazard would be lava flow form a fissure that was formed from faulting. Some other hazards would be mass melting of glaciers causing flooding, avalanches, and mudslides.

Exposure Assessment

A few villages are located in this area. Each village has 50 to 1500 buildings. Most of the buildings were built during the 1950’s and were constructed from rock, steel, and tuff. The houses are generally one-story, single family dwellings. This area consists of one hospital, many healthcare centers, schools and industrial plants. Most of the farmland is also located in this region. Although farming has drastically declined form the 1940’s many people still rely on the products. Most of the houses are heated by geothermal energy that is transported through pipelines either on the surface or subsurface. There are two sets of pipes, one to carry cold water and the other to carry hot water to and from wells; these pipelines are very vulnerable to earthquakes. Some of the pipes are old, and are located across fault planes if these pipes were to break or the wells became buried due to faulting many more people would be affected by the earthquake hazard. North of these villages in the lowlands there are a number of hydroelectric power plants that supply electricity to the villages. Parts of the plants such as the substations and switchyards are fragile. The roads, bridges and communication systems are robust and are made to with stand a major earthquake. The most important bridges have been equipped with seismic base isolation to enhance their strength to an earthquake (R.Sigjornsson, 1998).

In the course of half a century Iceland has turned from a poor undeveloped country into one of the most developed and progressive countries. Education and schooling systems is one of the best in the developed countries. Icelanders have the tools to meet their needs and unemployment is very low. These characteristics of Iceland reduce the hazards due to their advanced educational skills. Due to this change Iceland as become a hotspot for tourism. Tourists are very vulnerable to the natural hazards due to the language barrier and lack of knowledge of the area (J.Hjalmarsson, 1993).

Risk Assessment

Within the next two decades a major earthquake is predicted to occur. Through historical times the data has shown that the major earthquakes occur at recurrence intervals of 45 –112 years. In this zone earthquakes follow a relative similar pattern.  After the first initial major quake, smaller earthquakes follow for days, months, or years. The earthquakes generally start in the east and then move west (R. Sigbjornsson, 1998). Understanding the magnitude and hypocenter of an earthquake one can assess the possible risks associated with the magnitude and timing of the event. Ambraseys and Sigbjornsson have cataloged historical and recent earthquakes in Iceland. They characterized possible future earthquakes by using past earthquake data and putting it through a stochastic process of the Klondike type. The Klondike type is a methodology of interpreting data.  A probabilistic hazard map has been made from this Klondike Process and is presented in 475-year peak acceleration. Due to its lengthy time it is not as useful as one likes but you can gain an overall understanding of how the tectonic activity will change over time (Solnes, Sigbjornsson, Eliasson, 2004). Earthquakes in Iceland are very common but an earthquake of magnitude 5 to 7 is not, which can cause the most damage. The maps below should not be used for building codes but to assist in the process.

(Solnes, Sigbjornsson, Eliasson, 2004) 

Vulnerability Assessment

Iceland has very old culture that was establish over eleven hundred years; only 6% of the population is immigrants. The culture was raised with tectonic hazards. A quote from an Icelander “An earthquake is as exciting as breakfast.” This sums up the psychology of how they react to local hazards. The villages are small and have a close-knit community. Icelanders public safety is not very vulnerable, due to their culture.

            Iceland is among the ten richest countries based in the GDP per capita at purchasing power parity. The economy historically depended on fishing; currently 40% of exports are fish. Iceland is very vulnerable in respect to the declining fish population and lower prices for fish. The economy is slowly shifting to a more industrial based one. They have a fast growing travel, energy, and technology industries. An industrial economy creates more structures therefore increase the vulnerability to tectonic hazards. Also with the increase dependency to the industry the economy is at a higher risk (Harding, 2004).

            Icelandic culture invests a lot of interest in literature, art, chess and many other intellectual pursuits. Due to their island location with respect to the other Nordic countries they place a high importance on their independence and self-reliance, which could go either way with their vulnerability. Vulnerability relies heavily on how the people react and live with their environment Iceland has a very mindful society and a long history of high hazards (Harding, 2004).

            There many organizations that helps in an emergency, such as the National Life-saving Association of Iceland (SVFI) and the ICE-SAR. The SVFI created emergency shelters through out the island and have very strict rules with how they are used; in each shelter there is a guest book that helps track people. Iceland has a very harsh climate and if an accident ensues, and you have no shelter there is a high risk of freezing. The ICE-SAR organization was established in 1999 as a secondary group to the SVFI. They specialize in search dog training and use. The rescue team of ICE-SAR has over 4000 people available at any time; this level of assistance is not very common in most parts of the world. ICE-SAR also has 80 accident prevention divisions, which contribute a great deal in communicating the risk and preventative measure in case of natural hazards. Both of these organizations focus on hazard mitigation work.

            The key variables of vulnerability in Iceland are, how active will the island be tectonically and on the time between the major events. The vulnerability also lies with how well the communication systems withstand an event and access to the disaster site. The communities are well informed about their risks, and the country has a great system for aiding any kind of natural hazard, therefore, the risk come with the actions that arise after a seismic event.

Below is a synopsis of earthquakes and secondary hazards:  

Earthquake: Two large earthquakes occurred in June of 2000 in the SISZ after 88 years of relative seismic stillness. They measured 6.6 on the Richter scale. The village Hella was hit the worst, 30 houses were damaged and 11 became uninhabitable. No injuries occurred, but there were some people that were afraid to sleep in their house, for a couple of nights they slept in tents. The Financial loss was hundreds of millions of dollars. There were some minor road damages but all major roads stayed open. Phone lines held, but electricity and hot water pipes were down for about six to twelve hours. Geothermal activity increased causing minor damages to cropland. The second earthquake was the same magnitude and had about the same amount of damages. The director of civil defense told the citizen to refresh their knowledge on post seismic activity, located in the phone book. He also told them to expect many aftershocks. In the past 1,100 years 105 people have died form earthquakes (R. Sigbjornsson, 1998). 

Flooding: In 1996 Volcano Grimsuctn erupted under the icecap Vatnajokull, melting a huge quantity of Ice. On November 5, 1996 the melt water rushed down the countryside carrying away bridges, optical data cable, and other pieces of infrastructure. There was fifteen million dollars in damage; no lives were lost and rebuilding calmly started (Iceland news, 1996).

Avalanches & Mudslides: Avalanches and Mudslides are more common with steep terrain, which Iceland possesses. An earthquake of any size could trigger either of these events. Conducting a study on where the steep mountains are and where soil is unstable would greatly inform the public on what the local hazards after or during an earthquake.

Structural Damage: Most of the house built after 1970 are structurally sound. The strict building codes were also made in 1970 due to high amounts of tectonic activity. Due to these measures most buildings are tectonically safe. Turf and wood house are practically unseen today in Iceland unless it is represented as a historical building. Lava flows generally destroy everything in its path; structures are generally not built in lava paths (Preusser, 1976).

Dam Inundation: Icelanders are accustomed to dam failures; therefore catastrophes from a dam failure are low. Many rivers in Iceland follow fault lines therefore the dams in them stand no chance for a long life.

Mitigation Goals and Objectives

          The task is to reduce the adverse impacts of natural hazards and losses caused by natural disasters.

Objective One: Protect Life

            Maintain and improve warning and emergency communications

            Provide Shelter

            Develop laws that effectively address hazard mitigation

• Building codes
• Land zoning
• Reduce populations in high risk areas
• Mandatory response to an emergency evacuation calls
• Train emergency responders

Objective Two: Protect the Environment

            Reduce damages to natural habitats

            Create laws to help restore the environment after an event

            Help animals that are injured or distressed

§         Provide shelter, food and medical attention

Objective Three: Increase Public Preparedness for Disasters

            Understand natural hazards and the risk they pose

§         Posters through out public places

§         Grade school projects and drills

            Improve hazard maps

            Increase hazard information providers

• Internet
• Radio
• Flyers

            Heighten public awareness mainly for tourist

• Quizzes sent my mail to asses’ publics’ awareness
• Distribute pamphlets on planes and boats
• Village meetings
• Telephone surveys

            Constantly brainstorm new polices to enhance hazard mitigation initiatives

Objective Four: Protect Material Goods

            Protect Hospitals and shelters

            Protect Critical assets

            Reduce repetitive losses, including money spent on disaster relief

            Protect heat, food and electricity sources

            Estimate possible losses

Preparedness Strategies

          Check for hazards in the home

                        Assess the structural integrity of your house

                        Place large objects close to the floor

                        Keep the area around sleeping units safe from falling objects

                        Secure appliances

                        Keep dangerous materials and chemicals in a secure spot

            Identify shelters and safe spots

                        Away from falling objects

                        Places in the outdoors that could offer shelter

            Educate

                        Make sure everyone you know understand the risks

                        Teach children how to get help

                        Educate what to so during and after an event

                        Have an emergency plan

                        Attend community events

            Supplies for the home and when traveling

                        Keep flashlights, water, food and emergency shelter                 

First aid kit

Medicines

Evaluate the effectiveness of the hazard mitigation objectives

            The mitigation goals rely on the action of each individual. There are no warning systems for earthquakes therefore the most effective way in mitigating catastrophes would be to have structurally sound buildings, roadways and communication devices. Earthquakes can trigger flooding and lava flow events and due to the high tectonic activity structures should be built out of the area that these events would occur. Such as having villages to the sides of canyons and at elevations out of flooding zones and out of the lava flow paths. After these have been properly addresses and implemented, education should follow. A mitigation plan is only as useful if the steps are understood and practiced. Knowledge of hazards increases through the year due to the advances of science and the knowledge should be available to the community.

Implementation

          ·At the beginning of each school year drills should be performed at workplaces, homes, schools, and public areas. The drills would include all the secondary hazards of an earthquake, including an assessment of how to get informed of any possible floods, eruptions or structural collapses.

·With each new school year a third of the structures should be inspected, to see if they meet codes and if they don’t meet the codes they have a six-month leeway until they get fined. Also a third of gas pipes and other explosive pipes should be equipped with shaking monitors that would turn off the flow after so much shaking from an earthquake.

·Twice a year avalanche and flooding monitors in valleys and mountains be checked and improved.

·Bimonthly town meetings broadcast over the radio regarding hazard related current issues. Twice a year distribute updated pamphlets on emergency drills and shelters and contact numbers.

·Have a good understanding of the dynamics of the population through the weeks, to as where the high concentrations of people are at a given time and Asses how an evacuation could occur.

Evaluation of the plan

          A mitigation plan is only useful of the steps are understood and practiced. The Mitigation goals I have presented rely heavily on the action of each individual. There are no warning systems for earthquakes therefore preparedness is the most important tool in protecting oneself from disaster. 

WORKS CITED

Hamblin, W.K. Earth’s Dynamic Systems 9^th ed. Prentice Hall, 2001.

Harding, Paul. Iceland in the Lonely Planet, 5^th edition 2004.

Preusser. H. The Landscapes of Iceland: Types and Regions, The Hague, 1976.

Sigbjornsson, R. Earthquake Risk and Mitigation in South Iceland the 11^th European                        Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Balkema, Rotterdam, 1998.

Solnes, Julius et al. “Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Mapping of Iceland” In the 13^th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, Canada 2004.